Monday, August 24, 2015

Trump Appealing to Broad and Diverse Coalition of Assholes, Survey Shows

 Although many have "drawn comfort from the belief that Donald J. Trump’s dominance in the polls is a political summer fling", a new analysis shows that he is building a broad and diverse coalition of douchebags, jerks and straight up assholes to maintain his position at the top of the Republican primary field.

Trump draws enthusiasm from people of varying ideological, political and demographic backgrounds, but the data suggest his supporters do in fact fall squarely into one category: total dicks.

Republican Party strategists are particularly impressed at Trump's ability to unite this emerging and powerful voting bloc. "Sure, we're been courting the asshole vote for years," said one Republican insider. "But with his wishy-washy attitude toward attacking defenseless homeless people, Trump is setting a new bar."

Carl Tomanelli of Londonderry, N.H. counts himself among Trump's supporters. "People are starting to see, I believe, that all this political correctness is garbage," he said. "I think he’s echoing what a lot of people feel and say." Added Tomanelli, "And by people, I mean, you know, sexist and xenophobic jackasses."

Lisa Carey said, "As inappropriate as some of his comments are, I think it’s stuff that a lot of people are thinking but afraid to say. And I’m a woman." Continued Carey, "And, as you can clearly tell, I've thought through the consequences and wisdom of having the man responsible for the safety and well-being of over 300 million citizens casually blurt out the inappropriate things that other people are thinking."

In general, Trump's women supporters cited his willingness to be a total douche toward Mexicans as paramount to any policy concerns, while his sexist male enthusiasts pointed to an egregiously demeaning attitude toward women as key to their unconditional support.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Study: literally looking at a single pie chart increases support for action on climate change

Ah, climate change policy. Forever frozen in a political standoff, impossible to move toward a consensus. Or is it?

Today I came across this study on PLOS via a link from the Times. As with most scientific papers, the core message is obscured by technical details and jargon (Gateway Belief Model??), but the takeaway is simple and powerful: inform people of the overwhelming scientific consensus that human-caused climate change is real, and their belief in that consensus, along with support for public action, increases. Democrats and Republicans alike. Voila!

The method of the experiment, likewise, was really basic. Step 1: ask people what their estimation of the state of the scientific consensus is around climate change (only 12% accurately put the consensus above 90% on initial questioning) along with a few other simple questions—whether they're worried about it, whether they support public action, etc. Step 2: inform them of the actual scientific consensus (via one-sentence script, pie chart, or convoluted metaphor). Step 3: repeat step 1.

I'm surprised this paper hasn't received more press, precisely because most of what you read about political opinions (not that this issue is actually political, of course!) suggests that you can't change people's mind on charged topics: people filter new information to confirm what they already believe and even harden their views in the face of conflicting evidence. I feel like I'm constantly barraged by articles in the media about the impossibility of shifting anyone's attitudes on any important, consequential topic by supplying information.

Take this recent example of an experiment about people's attitudes toward gay marriage. The study got a ton of attention because everyone was so shocked that talking to people (appeared to) succeed in shifting their attitudes on gay marriage. This American Life did a whole show about it! The study's conclusions were also really narrow: only protracted, personal and empathetic conversations were effective in changing people's views (as opposed to reading a prepared script or set of facts). Furthermore, it turned out the entire dataset was fabricated, so it's possible no one's views changed at all.

That's why this climate change study is really encouraging, and kind of shocking. Caveats: it's just one experiment and the results, while robust, are modest (4 point mean increase in people's belief, on a scale of 1-100, that humans are causing the climate to change, and 1.7 point mean increase in people's belief that people should be doing more to reduce climate change). Still, that's pretty good for one sentence, pie chart, or metaphor.

What's going on? Are people more open to new facts and shifting their views than previous research suggests, or is climate change different from other political issues associated with complete and utter intransigence like abortion, evolution in education, gun control, etc?

I'm guessing it's a little of both, but mostly the latter. Unlike abortion, evolution, or gay marriage, climate change denial isn't a result of core philosophical or theological beliefs, even loosely defined. It's not even a longstanding political divide (the first President to propose cap and trade climate legislation was George W Bush). Which suggests that elite political opposition to climate change policy, far from an inevitable result of climate change denial, may actually be a principal cause. That, at least, is the simplest explanation for people's ignorance of the scientific consensus in the first place.

So, ya know, in case you were wondering: